China’s exports of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles this year will cut carbon dioxide emissions in other countries by about as much as Brazil emits in a year, according to an analysis released Thursday, Oct. 29.
The analysis, by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, was published by the climate site Carbon Brief. The Associated Press reported that the exports are at record levels as the energy crisis from the Iran war drives demand for renewables.
The key numbers
If trends from the first three quarters hold, Chinese clean-tech exports in 2026 will avoid around 450 million tonnes of CO2, nearly 2% of global emissions outside China, the analysis says. That is up from about 370 million tonnes in 2025.
Over the lifetime of the equipment, this year’s exports are on track to avoid 8.4 billion tonnes of CO2, about the annual emissions of the United States and India combined. That compares with 6.8 billion tonnes for 2025 exports and 5 billion tonnes for 2024.
Wind and solar equipment exported in 2026 will generate about as much electricity each year as roughly 100 coal-fired power plants, according to the analysis.
Where the cuts happen
Most clean-tech exports by value went to wealthier countries in the global north, but about 76% of the lifetime avoided emissions are in the global south. South and southeast Asia alone account for 52%, because Chinese solar panels there are replacing power from high-carbon grids.
The manufacturing cost
Making the equipment produced about 170 million tonnes of CO2 inside China in 2025, while the exports avoided about 370 million tonnes elsewhere that year. CREA says that means the goods, in aggregate, pay back their manufacturing emissions in about six months.